bell." i hope you will join me tonight for special coverage of the presidential debate. all the fun begins at 10:00 p.m. eastern. i will see you tonight. the market voted today reflecting apple as its tech king. >> if you can get apple off the front pages and on for something new and original. >> and voting against technology of the past. >> take a look at shares of hp continuing to slide. meg witman speaking to analysts. they just cut the 2013 guidance. we are down now 7%. >> after the debate tonight the nations and markets will go again. >> we know where the president's pathway leads because we are on it. >> i believe as a nation we are moving forward. >> this choice will be much more difficult and more of your money is at stake.

this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. tensions heating up in iran. michelle caruso-cabrera joins us with the latest. >> iran's currency down o40% in just one week. photos like this one leaking out of secretive iran today showing riot police shutting down money changers and ending a protest. the merchants are angry because the massive plunge in the rial makes it really hard to run a business. in january of 2011 one u.s. dollar cost 10,000 rials. one week ago 24,000 rials. there is a massive shortage of dollars in iran because they can't sell the oil due to the

tough economic sanctions. there are few banks in the world willing to handle their financial transactions. that lack of dollars means massive inflation, one of the chief reasons why governments fall. >> and brian, you were weighing in saying it is not just what is going on in iran but layer in the tensions between syria and turkey and that puts another level into the mix. >> the reason why this is important to a u.s. investor is because it has to do with oil. it is clear that the u.s. and saudi arabia have this plan of pumping as much oil as they can and it is starting to watch. now you have to think what happens if there is a regime change. so as a u.s. investor that is great for the u.s. economy. that is great for u.s. stocks. what has to happen in the u.s. market is oil has always been this traditional leading indicator in the economy.

if oil is up that means there is lots of demand and that is great. >> let's look at the oil picture. we did see oil breaking below $88. how could a regime change in iran impact oil? joining us is the king of commodities himself. you can take a look at wti. it doesn't seem like it is reflecting the tensions or would we be even lower if we didn't have them? >> i think that what we're seeing and michelle was explaining it quite well, i sent e-mails to explain what was happening. the possibilities of regime change is very much a part -- there has been tear gas let out in teheran in the streets. the currency has been literally collapsing. the currency movement of 5% is extraordinary in a week.

a currency movement at 40% is perhaps unparalleled other than periods of hyperinflation. the regime has to be concerned about its continuation. we are hoping the students and workers will take the streets. they have seen what happened with the spring. i think is enough people he want to see an end to the regime. i think what today's movement was telling you is there is a lot of crude oil in the waters ready to move and a new regime if there is one would have the ability to pump a lot of crude oil and would pump even more crude oil because it will need cash. i think that is what today's decline was. >> if you have regime change maybe you have an end of the sanctions. if you have an end of the sanctions then you get more oil supplied to the markets. >> that is a good point. in terms of putting on a trade at this point, way too early?

>> i would hesitate to sell crude oil after it breaks $3.50 following several other days of weakness. any bounce that one gets one has to be a seller. i aurrgued that the term structe is showing an aabundance of crude in north america. when you get that sort of circumstance the market has crude oil bidding for storage. that continued for the past several days and now this news out of iran. we have seen workers and inflation protests in the past. they have broken down and diminished after the police came in to quell them. let's hope that something more happens and that regime is turned out. >> what do you think this means for the nuclear talks? is this now going to be pushed out because ahmadinejad has hid hands full with something a little more domestic.

i know that was something a lot of traders had their eyes on whether or not those talks actually happened and how conciliatory or not they have been. >> i think ahmadinejad has his hands absolutely full right now. michelle had a great point. historically regimes are changed and thrown out when inflation occurs. the chinese are aware of that. that is when you get the changes. if i were ahmadinejad the last thing i would be concerned about right now is my nuclear facilities. the thing i would be concerned about is whether my regime will exist in several more weeks. i think the concerns with israel and iran have been pushed off rather dramatically. >> i do disagree with you on selling crude right here. i think the momentum is clearly down that it has been artificially held up by tensions in the middle east which is counter with what is happening in terms of turkey and syria.

but if you take a look at the other commodities and what has happened to base metals for example, they have gone to levels that rival where they were or in the direction where they were in '08 and '09. crude, let's not forget, was in the 30s then. the risk and reward on selling crude at this level is very favorable in my view. >> i don't think we are arguing it at all. if this happens, if what i think happens happens crude oil can go to $70 in the course of three months. if that is the case then worrying about the $1 or $2 rally is not important. if i can sell up tomorrow i shall. if you are saying to the world i think crude oil can go down $18 and only rally $2 i think the odds of the $18 break are better than 50/50 then you do the trade. you and i are both on the same

side of the trade but it is a matter of when one hopes to get a modest rally bounce from today or not. >> michelle, last word to you. i don't know if you wanted to comment on what is going on in the region. with the presidential debates tonight how that might factor in with discussions of the powers. >> tonight is supposed to be domestic discussion on the debates. considering what has been happening in iran i would not be surprised if it comes up. if we talk about more oil coming in that would bring more on to the export market. >> one would hope mr. romney or the president would acknowledge side of those opposing y we are the regime in teheran. >> great discussion. michelle caruso-cabrera and our thanks to dennis gartman. let's trade this thing. >> we have a huge skew. we are at record levels for the

vix, not the spot vix but the futures. in other words, if you go out, folks, just six months into the futures they are ten points higher than where the spot is right now. so if what dennis says and his observations as well as michelle and michelle if we see a regime change you will see that vix, those futures come down dramatically because that steepness of that curve is there because of the potential that it goes the opposite way, the potential that we have some sort of nuclear issue or israel drags the united states -- >> this is not a regime that walks away easily. this is not like flipping the keys to an apartment that you are done renting. these businesses in power. ahmadinejad is a puppet for much bigger powers behind the scene. my concern would be this is not going to be an orderly transition because land and rice prices are higher. i take the other side of that.

my go-to trade would be like a conoco phillips. here is an oil producer that has more than 70% of its assets in the north america region. if there is a gas spice this is not a company that is reliant on the strait and they have their assets in a much safer place and i think they get a premium as a result of that. >> i don't think there is a regem that goes away easily. you have to expect that. i would stay away from the oil names at this point in time. i think oil could go much lower. you follow this through to the logical conclusion you could see opec start to fracture. if everybody is pumping a much oil as they can because they have to pay their bills then everybody will be cheating on opec. i would certainly stay away from those names there. i would rather have natural gas.

that is the place to be. >> this is yet another reason to be negative on the market or at least neutral. i have been pairing back exposure. uncertainty is not great. the regime to go away the least quickly is arguably iran. and then you have russia with a significant stake there. you have china looking to swoop in and buy properties. it is a big mess. >> it's who fills in. let's say there is regime change, do we think it is a democratically elected regime that we like or likes us. highly doubtful? >> i don't know if anyone hates us more. >> it is a good discussion. let's go to market flash. >> developments in the tech space. 3m has dropped. now shares of avery down sharply

after the deal with 3 m. back to you. >> thanks for that update. hp slide might make you think the pc business is near dead. found out the one stock in the space you can bet on right now and for the long haul when we come back.

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massive drop for hewlett pack rd. >> the worst performing stock on

the dow. meg witman speaking today. the stock down 50% from its high in february and today closing down about 13%. tough day. >> thank you very much. and it wasn't just 2013. what she said about growing revenues in line with gdp by 2016 that wasn't exactly a great reason to buy the stock. >> hewlett packard used to matter. >> brian is long. >> i wish you luck on that. the thing with hewlett-packard if you needed meg whitman to tell you growth is not there you are not paying attention. i think jim nailed this best probably almost two years ago now. they make things that people don't want. it is not an easy transition for them to get into tablets or

software as a service. these aren't overnight things. you combine that with problems with management at the top there is not a lot of reason to weight in here. >> hewlett-packard people might have wanted to invest because of a cash flow but they estimates down. >> sometimes you just can't turn around a company. what was a great company in the past with great products and great technology is no longer. kodak, xerox. the question to ask is, is dell, is intel maybe not there but definitely dell, are they the next xerox? i think there is a good bet that they go down to the utility-like companies like maybe microsoft where they are old tech. they are much, much too big to

innovate and become gdp-like stories. >> you see the virtues in investing in europe. do you see virtues in hewlett-packard. >> what i will say is meg whitman told me a year ago it would take five years to turn around the company. she said 2016. >> growing in line with gdp. >> exactly. you don't know what will happen. she has the pedigree to turn the company around. >> i don't think she has the pedigree to turn it around. >> she is trying to turn it into software. that takes time as josh said. >> what they did today she lowered guidance by 15%. how much did the stock drop today? 15%. in other words, she took the expectations down to where $15ish is where the stock is.

>> why didn't she set the expectations lower in every opportunity she had to be in front of the press. be sure to teen in tomorrow. david favor will sit down with meg whitman at 9:00 a.m. maybe he will ask that question. with hp and dell selling off concerns of debt of the pc business can you believe in microsoft? let's bring in pim co's head of strategy. do you believe in the pc story? can you believe there is a secular decline in the pc business and still believe in microsoft? >> we believe in microsoft. microsoft does not have to struggle just because hp and dell are struggling. as people move away from pcs and towards tablets microsoft used to think it has an important role to play. microsoft is generating free cash flow. it has a 10% free cash flow yield.

a 3% dividend yield and microsoft is much more than windows. people forget the server business is just about as big as the server business. it has the x box and internet explorer. if none of the innovations come true it is a cheap cash flow story. if they get some of the innovations right we see upsides from here. why they have the struggles we think microsoft is a very good long-term holding. >> would you take a large position like you guys obviously have because i don't think pim co has positions that are small, would you generate that additional cash flow because moving this one and moving the needle on it is not going to move quickly. in other words, you can afford to be short a bunch of calls against this one because there are those willing to bet on the upside. you guys would be willing to collect the premium for selling

that, would you not? >> in theory it is true but our equity strategies are much more fundamental. i know we tend to own our stocks for a year or two, three at a time. given how much cash flow microsoft is generating very aggressive share buybacks. we think there is potential for expansion from here but we think it can be an attractive holding. >> when we look at stocks like microsoft one of the things we talk about is some of these stocks are almost a stock that only a bond holder could love because pim co's dna is fixed income is that how you look at this as if you have a big dividend almost like an interest rate and if there is upside it is a cherry on top? or do you believe that beneath all of this there is actually a growth story. maybe they get mobile right or something along those lines?

>> i think your characterization is very fair. in our devalue strategy microsoft is one of our top holdings. it has a balance sheet, global exposure. we still see macrorisks around the world. if they get some of the growth opportunities right there is upside from there. i'm not going to argue with you at all. it is a good defensive name. it is going to return a lot of cash to share holders and we like that. >> i want to broaden it out and go a little macro. i know you prefer stocks to bonds in this environment. let me take the other side and say we have global quantitative easing. wouldn't it be better doing what the central banks are doing and getting the capital appreciation? >> we don't disagree. certainly we want to be in line with what the central banks are doing.

if the treasury bond is buying treasuries it is good to be a treasury holder. what is going to happen when the central bank buying turns off? we think stocks are going to be well positioned in a modern inflation environment. and the bigger risk, deflation is a very probability. a bigger risk is higher inflation in the future in which case cash and bonds do poorly. we need to be in gold and commodities and real assets. we are building our portfolios to reflect the probability of these different destinations. our biggest scenario is one of moderate inflation and equity should be the class to hold. >> i want to go to two more of your picks. logitech and aia. that is not a name we usually talk about. what is the thesis here? >> it is not a sexy name. people don't think about mice and keyboards and speakers as

being sexy. as people move from pcs to tablets people are buying keyboards and accessories. it has a 10% free cash flow yield trading at ten times earnings and is the clear market leader. we like the market leaders that have blue chip balance sheets and a lot of cash generation. >> on a lighter note i know you read "wall street journal" every day. have you seen the article about bald men in business being more powerful. do you feel more powerful? >> i was offended that i was skipped. i guess i'm not as photogenic as some of the other folks covered. >> i say i want to haircut the barber asks me which one. [ laughter ] >> always good to talk to you. i thought of you first, by the way. >> thank you very much. >> him along with dr. evil and

the only exception was uncle fester as bald and not powerful. >> i don't think neil's boss is thinking of shading his head after reading that article today. >> powerful enough with his hair. retail name down 20% catches a break today. we'll tell you why. later obama versus romney. when it comes to the economy who is the better bet? we will give you some answers. how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments. the equity summary score is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea.

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time for pops and drops. we kick it off with a drop for lex mark. >> people not buying a printers not a good thing. it didn't help with lex mark. they fall better than 3%. >> fdl a pop. 3%. >> a little more on the earnings. the margin pressure might be ending this quarter. i still think they are seeing a lot of competition from wal-mart and target. >> pop for best buy. >> richard and four other

private equity firms are kicking the tires and examining the books. i don't get the pop. i would avoid. >> drop for walgreens down 1%. >> sales were down. people going to wal-mart and cost co for drugs and target and also mail order prescriptions. they are loose in the front end. i would stay away. >> pop for murphy oil up 4%. >> are you suggesting they should sell off a number of assets including oil sands interests. the u.s. retail fuel business. the stock is worth $94 a share if they do those things 60% higher than that. >> a drop for apple maps. mad magazine has thrown its hat matte controversy. the illustration shows how new yorkers view the world in the

mad magazine version brooklyn is bordered by the mississippi river and the sea of galilee. pop for lennar. >> kudos to citi for getting this one right. >> drop for metro pcs. >> you get a takeover and you are supposed to sell. people held on and the premium was disappointing. this stuff happens. that is what you are seeing today. >> here is one, luxfer holdings. >> ipo priced at the low end of the range. sells extruding products. got into this thing and lucky to get the 10% move on.

>> i sold it today on the pop because i had money in it. they came out and raised guidance and said fuel costs are that big an issue. with oil going down adding lift to the airline sector. maybe stay a little longer. >> pop for netflix up 10%. >> noted in a customer survey that satisfaction is rising. overall up 3%. satisfaction with content is about double. they really need to hit their forecast for the 7 million new subscribers to justify the multiple. >> a pop for sore losers. ever hear someone say they would leave the country if their candidate loses. jet blue asks customers to vote for who they want to win.

after the election the airline will select 1,000 losers and give them free round trip tickets out of the country. >> i would have picked ron paul. >> put your money where your mouth is. coming up could the ipad mini end up being a big headache for apple. we'll tell you what some warning signs some are seeing. our guests think mitt romney is the right man for the market and the economy. stanford university professor will tell you why right after this. ♪ [ piano ]

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welcome back. we are live at the nasdaq market site in new york city. "wall street journal" reporting the apple makers are making components for a small ipad. some are worried that it could be a mistake for some saying it could squeeze margins. should we be concerned? >> no. should not be.

i respect henry's work but you should not be because this is why wal-mart took out those kindle devices and so forth out of their stores. they took it out because people buy things through these ipads and so forth. that is a retail sales tool and that is why apple wants to get these things into people's hands. they need to move down to the seven inch version which kindle and everybody has. i think that is a game changer for apple. >> let's get more on this and the impact on tablet competitors like amazon and google. let's bring in senior editor. good to see you. should we be concerned if you buy an ipad mini you will not buy a regular ipad or not a touch. >> the touch hasn't gone on sale yet. it has things the iphone 5 brings to the table and then the idea is the ipad mini be a step back and will it keep pace.

you are dealing with a mid way cycle. it is more like a long time ago the ipod had the ipod mini that came out. they used to release ipods off cycle. this is years ago like in 2004. they justified it because it was a different type of product and the capacity was lower. will there be enough of a difference that maybe they will be able to work it out pricewise. >> if you are amazon should you be quaking in your boots? >> i think so. they are playing a price game. i think apple has been able to side step that a lot of the time. the price has slipped under $199 with the kindles or $299. if they come up with a tweener with benefits of both and it is more versatile it is a lot more versatile than the closed ecosystem on the kindle fire or the nook. >> what demographic is buying this? for college kids or the reader

that wants something more than a kindle? >> i think some of it i would like to see them show. i think people as crazy as it sounds -- >> we have to buy second ipads. >> i hear a lot of people say they want an ipad but haven't been able to afford it. $499 i'm not sure. that is where the ipod touch fit in. and then there is the question how it will fit in. >> don't you think the primary market will be scale down the technology but scale down the price meaningful to knock competitors completely out of the market? >> i think tecosystem is it. >> you have the apps. >> good to see you. how concerned should we be if the margins get compressed. the margins on the iphone 5 let's say are 55%. on the ipad i'm sure they are

pretty high. >> i'm not that concerned because we heard this. scott talked about it with the ipod touch cht that was supposed to be gone. they saw record numbers of those. that was supposed to be cannibalized by the ipad and the iphone. this has happened time and time again with the apple. i think it is a different consumer or additional to what you have. i would buy apple right here. let's move on to our next trade. tonight marks the first of three debates between president obama and mitt romney. both economy and markets will play a big role in today's matchup. which candidate is the right fix for both? john taylor is an economic adviser to the romney campaign and joins us. you are going to say mitt romney. in terms of convincing the american people what you believe and what mr. romney believes

what does mr. romney need to do and say? >> we have high unemployment. the last growth number 1.3%. we are not creating enough jobs to employ the working age population. you can put good spins on this. basically it is not good. as i look at this it is largely a problem of policy. the policy has not been pro growth. it has been short termism. >> with all due respect i'm sure you watch a lot of the sunday talk shows, the one before the first presidential debate everybody was saying mr. romney has not outlined his own economic proposal so while you may say mr. obama has fallen short mr. romney is not putting out his case. >> i disagree with that. there is a lot of specificity on proposals on energy, the

keystone pipeline issue and regulation and make sure we stop the huge growth of regulations and entitlements. he has been very specific. i think his tax program is pro growth. there is a lot of specificity and people look at it. it is the kind of thing the economy needs right now and that is what basic economics tells me. >> bernanke has sited your work as a big influence on current monetary policy yet mr. romney has said ben bernanke should be fired. are you advising that ben bernanke should get fired? >> i don't get into personnel issues. i would say on quoting different rules i think quantitative easing has not been helpful. i think we had good monetary policy in the '80s and '90s until recently. that is what we want to do. that is what the romney program

is all about. >> john, i'm curious. there is a lot of talk about the evans rule and it is not quite the same as the taylor rule but it seems to go a way towards some of the things you have talked about in the past predominantly this idea of having more of a check on possible bubbles because i know you have been a big critic. what do you make of the evans rule and if it could be successful in tamping down that activity in the future? >> it is such an open ended policy. the kind of policy i like is what we had in much of the '80s and '90s. that really worked well. we had strong growth. look at that stock market. it was incredibly good. that is the policy we need. i call it rules based. it is a specific kind of rules, not just open ended. a lot of progress can be made. >> good to speak with you. thanks for your time.

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welcome back to "fast money." let's take a look at shares at oc wen financial. the stock ending higher by 20% in today's trade. >> a conservative outlook sent

shares lower. mike is looking at a different ag stock. >> a lot of the fertilizer names also lower. we saw disappointing comments out of mosaic. the top five most active options in cf industries were all puts. we saw buys of the weekly 215 puts. those cost only about 15 cents. a very cheap way to press bearish bets. this stock doesn't announce their own earnings. >> you were watching. >> i still was. i do heart it. they made fairly positive comments about the global crops or in their sense that we had the drought. you are starting to see china perhaps have a problem with corn. i like monsanto here. i think they said really great

things about corn. if you don't want monsanto go with corn. next trade gold prices hit a new 2012 high on monday and up 10% in the past three months. is now the time to take profits. let's bring in founder and ceo of the management. is this a technical call on your part? >> there are three reasons why i sold half of my gold position. you have to book profits. in the wake of chicago fed president charles evans extremely dubbish comments we saw it hit the high. only went up $3. that was disappointing. most importantly i am seeing the presidential debate tonight. one of three debates. if mitt romney can land a single punch you will see gold go lower. i'm looking to buy it back. >> you didn't mention the fact

that crude got crushed today. there goes the inflation case in the eyes of a lot. that has to make it consider to get rid of the second half of your position. >> not necessarily. there is a lot of waves over there with iran. i don't foresee a regime change. i'm focused on the presidential debate tonight. if mitt romney can land a punch or two you will see a dip in gold. if obama stays in for another four years you will not see the budget reduce therefore gold will continue. long term gold is going higher. >> long gold. does who wins matter to that gold trade? >> maybe in the very, very short term but i would be a buyer on that. we are talking about global c t quantitative easing. it is almost decoupling. i think gold will be higher.

$2,000 an ounce would be conservative. >> i am long some gold, as well. >> to the point with john taylor i think if you do see a body blow or some sort of damage done to the president then i think you will see gold trade down in the evening session tonight. >> always good to see you. thanks for your time. >> if you do see that don't be too optimistic because the odds make it a bet on the obama election. he has a long road ahead of him. good luck mitt romney. president obama and mitt romney virtually lost in the dead heat to the white house. we'll tell you what to watch for next. [ male announcer ] the markets keep moving. make sure the news keeps coming with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. use the news links breaking stories

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the first presidential debate takes place tonight from denver. joining us is larry kudlow with a preview. you decided to give mr. romney

some advice tonight and that would be to go on the offensive. >> go on the tax cuts. he has a great across the board tax cut. don't be bashful. middle class people get higher take home pay. his themes have to be growth. he has to make the contrast and the choice between free enterprise and redistribution or redistribution and growth. let's talk about class warfare versus opportunity and capitalism. those are the big picture themes he's got. he has a good tax plan and a good spending plan. i would lob in there under the rubric of leadership this whole benghazi catastrophe. i think it has hurt obama's polls in the last ten days. i think that is why romney is coming up. the benghazi catastrophe the president went to las vegas and

then sent susan rice really telling lies across the board. i know this is an economics debate. leadership, a choice between economic systems. growth versus redistribution. get the tax cuts out there. i want the tax cuts. >> we were just talking to john taylor. i asked whether or not he believed romney was being specific enough about the economic plan because thought is the knock he has been getting and professor taylor said he has been extremely specific. do you think this campaign can gain traction and win this thing if they believe they are specific enough with their plans. >> john taylor is a great american and one of my heroes and mentors. i don't think they are quite as specific as they could. you know how to sell something. you want to sell something. if one of your great panelists has a stock or a position or an idea you got to sell it. not just once. you don't whisper it.

covering several shows. you have to sell the thing. second point talk about middle class take home pay going up. joe biden was up. the middle class income has been buried. and third here is the tricky point. i don't want to see the tax deductions taken away from the middle class. i want it removed for the upper income people because they are going for 35 to 28%. they should lose the bulk. i wouldn't go after the middle class tax deductions. he said 17% yesterday. he whispered it to a local denver affiliate. i don't know what was up with that. i wouldn't go there. i say $140,000 a year. >> cuddly. cuddles, we got to go. >> 25% to 20%. >> larry, i'm sorry.

you got another hour 7:00. we'll be sure to tune in to see part two of your analysis. >> thanks for having me on your show. >> always good to see you. we have your first move tomorrow when we come back. when you take a closer look... ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers... ...with a deeper knowledge of their subjects. as a result, their students achieve at a higher level. let's develop more stars in education. let's invest in our teachers... ...so they can inspire our students. let's solve this.

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